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Backtest studies — honest, data-driven deep dives into the strategies Indian traders actually argue about. Every number here comes from a real backtest. New to this? Start with the guide on how to backtest trading strategies.
Option sellingThe 9:45 AM NIFTY short straddle — what a year of data really saysEveryone sells it. The win rate is only 41% — and it still made money. Here's why that's not a contradiction.Read study →Trend followingDoes the 20/50 moving-average crossover work on NIFTY?The 'hello world' of trend following, tested. It returned +9% — but how it got there is the whole lesson.Read study →Myth-busting53% win rate, and it still lost money — why win rate liesThis NIFTY breakout strategy won more often than it lost, and ended in the red. A lesson in the most misread metric in trading.Read study →ComparisonNIFTY vs BANKNIFTY for intraday option sellingSame strategy, same ~40% win rate on both — but the ride was very different. The debate, settled with data.Read study →Myth-bustingThe 'buy the dip' myth: buying NIFTY after every red dayDoes the reflex actually pay? Tested on two years — it returned 0% while just holding returned 35%.Read study →Option sellingExpiry-day option selling: is it really free money?Selling the expiry-day straddle won more than half its trades — and still lost money over two years. The tail is the whole story.Read study →Option sellingStraddle vs strangle on NIFTY — which survives the drawdown?Same data, same rules, ATM straddle vs 300-point strangle. The straddle earned more points — and the strangle was the better trade.Read study →IntradayOpening-range breakout: buy the breakout, or sell the option?Same NIFTY breakout signal, two ways to trade it. Buying the option lost. Selling the other side won +2,063 points — with a catch.Read study →IntradayVWAP intraday on BANKNIFTY, backtestedGo long above VWAP, exit below — the most-drawn line in intraday trading. Over two years it churned 4,205 trades and bled.Read study →GreeksSelling the 0.1-delta strangle — does far-OTM actually protect you?We backed out the delta of every NIFTY strike from live prices and sold the 0.1-delta strangle. Win rate: 77%. But read the loss column.Read study →Myth-bustingNIFTY's entire two-year rally happened overnightSplit NIFTY's return into the overnight gap and the intraday session. One made +11,247 points. The other lost money.Read study →IntradayFade the gap or chase it? NIFTY opening gaps, testedWhen NIFTY gaps more than 0.3% at the open, does the gap fill or run? Two years, 194 gap days, one clear answer.Read study →SeasonalityIs any weekday better for NIFTY? Two years of day-of-week returnsFriday carried the index; Tuesday was the only red day. A look at NIFTY's day-of-week seasonality — with the usual caveat.Read study →Option sellingDoes a stop-loss help the short straddle? Not the way you'd thinkNo stop, a fixed 40-point stop, or a trailing stop — run on the same NIFTY straddle. The stop you'd expect to help hurt the most.Read study →Option selling9:20, 9:45 or 10:15? When to sell the NIFTY straddleSame straddle, three entry times, two years of data. Waiting half an hour tripled the return — but there's a reason it isn't later.Read study →