Myth-busting
53% win rate, and it still lost money — why win rate lies
Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. These are backtested past results, not investment advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance does not guarantee future returns.
query › "Go long NIFTY when the 15-min candle range expands, with a fixed target and stop."
53.4%
Win rate
−421
Net points
−0.42%
Return
73
Trades
−2.15
Sharpe
Cumulative P&L (points · spot)
A 53% win rate sounds like an edge. This NIFTY 15-minute range-breakout strategy won more trades than it lost — and still ended two months in the red.
Winning small, losing big
The wins were frequent but tiny; the losses, though fewer, were larger. Net −421 points over the period, with a negative Sharpe — you were paid poorly for the risk you took.
Win rate lies
A high win rate tells you nothing about profitability. Average win versus average loss — and drawdown — do. A strategy can win 7 of 10 and still bleed if the 3 losses dwarf the 7 wins.
Takeaway
Judge a strategy by its P&L distribution and drawdown, not its hit rate. This one flatters the eye and empties the account.
Want to stress-test your own version — change the entry time, the stop, the trail?
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